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Centre for Health Economics and Policy Analysis

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Changing relationship between business cycles and mortality in the U.S. topic of CHEPA seminar

04 Jun 2014

The relationship between business cycles and mortality in the U.S. is complex and appears to have changed over time, a Waterloo economist has found.

At a CHEPA seminar on June 11, Emmanuelle Piérard, assistant professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Waterloo, will talk about her research into the relationship between total mortality, deaths due to accidents, cardiovascular disease and measures of the business cycles for the U.S from 1962 to 2010 using a time-varying parameter model.

After first presenting a theoretical model to outline the transmission mechanisms from the business cycles to health status, Piérard will describe a theoretical model that was used to motivate the empirical framework and explain why the relationship between mortality and the economy have changed over time.

Her research found overwhelming evidence of structural breaks in the relationship between mortality and the business cycles over the sample period, and that the relationship between total mortality, deaths due to cardiovascular disease and accidents and the business cycles display significant time-varying relationship. The relationship between total mortality and deaths due to cardiovascular disease and the economy has weakened over time, while the deaths due to accidents have remained strongly procyclical. She’ll explain how important advances in medical technology and changes in the effects that work have on health are important reasons for this time-varying relationship.

Piérard is an assistant professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Waterloo, a fellow of the Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, an associate of the Canadian Centre for Health Economics and co-chair of the Canadian Health Economics Study Group. Her research areas are in health economics and in applied econometrics. Specifically, she is interested in how business cycles and the health care system, both health care inputs and wait times, affect the health of individuals and their use of health care.

She has an MA and a PhD in economics from McMaster and a BSc Sciences Économiques from Université du Québec à Montréal.

The seminar takes place on Wednesday June 11, in CRL B119, from 12:30 p.m. to 1:30 p.m. All are welcome. The seminar will be available remotely for those who are unable to attend.

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